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	<title>Digital Diner &#187; Ownership</title>
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	<link>http://digitaldiner.org</link>
	<description>Gavin Clabaugh&#039;s irregular blog on irregular things.</description>
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		<title>Digital Pulp Fiction</title>
		<link>http://digitaldiner.org/2008/02/25/digital-pulp-fiction/</link>
		<comments>http://digitaldiner.org/2008/02/25/digital-pulp-fiction/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 04:42:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Gavin Clabaugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Books]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gizmos & Gadgets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NPTech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ownership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.digitaldiner.org/2008/02/25/digital-pulp-fiction/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I think I was eight when I read my first &#8220;real&#8221; book — of course, that&#8217;s not counting comics, Willy Waddle, or books designed to be chewed. The book was Arthur Ransome&#8217;s Swallows and Amazons, a proper book; a marvelous story for a boy who spent his days poking at squiggly-wiggly things in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I was eight when I read my first &#8220;real&#8221; book — of course, that&#8217;s not counting comics, <em>Willy Waddle</em>, or books designed to be chewed. The book was Arthur Ransome&#8217;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swallows_And_Amazons"><em>Swallows and Amazons</em></a><em>, a</em> proper book; a marvelous story for a boy who spent his days poking at squiggly-wiggly things in the tide pools of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadboro_Bay,_British_Columbia">Cadboro Bay</a>. I&#8217;m sure I still have it somewhere.</p>
<p>I love books — the look and feel, even the smell. They&#8217;re almost perfect: relatively portable, random-access, and — treated properly — they&#8217;ll last a hell of a long time. If you get tired of them, you can give them away, sell them on eBay, take them to a used-book store, or burn them for kindling, al la <em>Fahrenheit 451</em>&#8230; They look grand on bookshelves. They&#8217;re <em>almost</em> perfect. The do have a few draw backs:</p>
<ul style="margin-left: 54pt">
<li>Books (and paper) are heavy — especially those damn 4-inch thick computer books.</li>
<li>Books are not very portable — small quantities are fine, but if you try to take ten or so on vacation with you, it&#8217;s a literal drag. Despite their catchy name, Few &#8220;Pocket Books&#8221; will actually fit in a pocket — or if they do, you look kind of stupid.</li>
<li>Paper takes up a lot of space — especially those damn user guides, administrator guides, and installation manuals I print and bind in 3-ring notebooks.</li>
<li>Printed materials tend to &#8220;expire&#8221; — Today&#8217;s newspaper is worth about a dollar, yesterday&#8217;s is suitable for wrapping fish. (Of course, tomorrow&#8217;s newspaper, if you had it today, would be worth a fortune.)</li>
<li>Repurposing is difficult — Transmutation costs are outrageous, either lead to gold, or paper to digital. Screw OCR, it&#8217;s not good enough, ever.</li>
<li>Paper is expensive — There a &#8220;tree-cost&#8221; and an environmental cost. The manufacture and bleaching of paper is horrendous. Stand downwind of a pulp mill and breath deep. You&#8217;ll know what I mean.</li>
<li>The print publishing process is arcane — the economies discourage risk and tend to favor existing authors and large publishers, to the determent of the small publisher or aspiring writers.</li>
</ul>
<p>In late 2007, Jeff Bezos introduced the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kindle">Kindle</a>. I&#8217;m not sure he&#8217;ll be remembered in the same breath as Herr Hoffmann Johannes Gensfleisch zur Laden zum <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_Gutenberg" target="_blank">Gutenberg</a> (whew). At least his name is shorter. The Kindle is, nevertheless, revolutionary.<span id="more-253"></span></p>
<p><strong><em>Life&#8217;s Little Ironies<br />
</em></strong></p>
<p>I got mine in late January of 2008. I feel I&#8217;m standing at the edge of history. Despite the book&#8217;s drawbacks, it was with some concern for my eternal soul — and some trepidation about the future — that I ordered a Kindle. A classic conundrum, I was caught in a lovers triangle, torn between my love of books and my love of shiny new gadgets. I couldn&#8217;t resist. I did <strong>not</strong> get it simply because I had an extra 400 simoleons burning a hole in my pocket though. I had a real purpose in mind, really. But I do like gadgets.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">
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<p style="text-align: center"><img src="http://digitaldiner.org/files/2008/02/022608-0441-digitalpulp14.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://www.digitaldiner.org/2007/11/22/the-cuneiform-code-1-of-2/">Gavin&#8217;s Second Element of Effective Knowledge Management In Action</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center">(I finish two sets of bookcases the week the Kindle arrives)</p>
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<p>Just so we&#8217;re straight: let me assure you, I am not anxious to herald the end of the 600-year reign of the book. More so, after watching what the iPod and digital music has done to the music industry; I fear for the future. Newspapers are already suffering — perhaps on their last legs — put out to pasture by something as innocent as Craig&#8217;s List. Information may want to be free, but writers (and journalists) also want to eat. I think they should. Nevertheless, I bought a Kindle – hoping to fill it with user manuals, installation guides, and 4-inch-thick computer books (and a little pulp SciFi for long airplane rides).</p>
<p>Ironically, my Kindle arrived just after I had spent untold hours building, drilling, cutting, measuring, cutting again, cursing, painting, staining, sanding, and trimming some 30-odd-feet of book shelves for some of my thousand-odd books. There was barely time to admire my work before it was time to ponder the future of books. Had it all been a waste of time? They&#8217;re awful purty, if I do say so myself.</p>
<p><strong><em>The Difference Engine<br />
</em></strong></p>
<p>The Kindle is different; it changes the rules of the game. First, it&#8217;s wired, in a wireless sort of way. It comes bundled with a lifetime, free wireless connection to the &#8216;net — an EVDO connection, no less, via Sprint.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s right, you heard me —free. Once you shell out the 400 clamasaurs, you can browse the web, surf to your heart&#8217;s content for not another plug nickel. You see, the connectivity is bundled as a cost of sales, book sales. Amazon is betting on making up that cost with the sale of content; figuratively giving away the razors and hoping to sell you a razorblade in the form of a $9.77 Kindle-ized copy of <em>Sweeny Todd (</em>the book, not the movie<em>)</em>.</p>
<p>They&#8217;ve made the process so painless it&#8217;s scary. Gratification is instantaneous. Click a button on the beast, and the book arrives, wirelessly, painlessly, ruthlessly efficient. I worry it&#8217;s too painless. Now, when I finish the first book in a three-part trilogy, the next book in the series is just a click away. This could cause a clamasaur problem.</p>
<p>I admit, at first glance, the Kindle looks funny. I was disheartened by its design, seeing the initial press coverage. In the pictures it looked like it was designed for the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dharma_Initiative">DHARMA Initiative</a> (right here in Ann Arbor), circa 1968. Up close, though it&#8217;s not that bad — kind of retro, kind of not.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s here that I think the wonky gadget geeks missed their marks, and missed them badly.</p>
<p>The pundits, previously spoiled by the elegant beauty of all-things iPod, almost universally panned the Kindle, complaining about pretty much everything. But they especially complained that it was impossible to hold and &#8220;funny looking&#8221; (a technical term meaning not an iPhone). Once I had mine in my hands, I knew where those grumpy geeks had gone wrong. They had been using the Kindle naked. I mean the Kindle was naked, not the gadget geeks. (Don&#8217;t go there.)</p>
<p>In the half-dozen reviews I saw or read, every Kindle was demoed without its leather case. It was a logical mistake on their part. They&#8217;re used to looking at iPhones, and iPods, and other iThings — we can blame bad iPoddy training. The iPod &#8220;case,&#8221; for example, is a worthless throwaway specifically designed to make you spend another couple of hundred dollars on iPod accessories.</p>
<p>Back to the point, the Kindle, s<em>ans</em> the (included) cover, <em>is</em> awkward to hold. However, properly attired, dressed up in nice leather, it all flows, it all makes sense. This cover is integral. You need it.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img src="http://digitaldiner.org/files/2008/02/022608-0441-digitalpulp34.jpg" alt="" /></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="font-size: 9pt;color: #4f81bd"><strong>A Properly Dressed Kindle<br />
</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="font-size: 9pt;color: #4f81bd"><strong>Easy to Hold | Easy to Read<br />
</strong></span></p>
<p>Without its cover, there is no easy place to put your fingers, no logical place to grab it at all. In fact, everything you touch seems to toggle the pages, either forward or back.</p>
<p>Slip it in its cover, however, and suddenly all the weird angles make sense. The left edge sort of slips into two leather brackets, and the weird angles on the right side now provide purchase for your thumb on the cover— they&#8217;re cutbacks that let you easily hold the thing without mashing the (now handy) &#8220;Next Page&#8221; bar. There&#8217;s a little plastic tab that snaps into the rubberized underside of the beast that holds it all in place. (Pundits, apparently, don&#8217;t read manuals.)</p>
<p>With the cover on, I find myself holding it just like I would hold a hardback book; palms on the cover and thumbs on each edge. Nothing could be more natural. It &#8220;feels&#8221; like a book. Moreover, it <em>reads</em> like a book. I&#8217;ve even taken to taking it to bed, reading a few pages of a novel before <span style="text-decoration: line-through">The</span> A Daily Show. Let me say that again: it reads like a book. The transition was painless. My luggage has just shed 10 lbs.</p>
<p>It has a couple of other features, some worth mentioning, some not. There&#8217;s a speaker, but it&#8217;s lousy. Given that, it will play music and audio books. Through headphones or ear-buds the sound&#8217;s great. I gave it the <a href="http://www.amywinehouse.co.uk/">Amy Winehouse</a> test, and it passed. But, I&#8217;m not giving up my iPod (which is filled with Audiobooks anyway). Besides, there&#8217;s no way I could easily <a href="http://www.digitaldiner.org/2006/09/30/volvo-hacking-hardwiring-my-ipod-research-phase/">wire it into my car</a> without feeling real foolish. Of note, you can put it &#8220;to sleep&#8221; — locking the keyboard — and the music or audio books will continue to play. This is important; otherwise the cover clicks the mousy-roller thing, playing havoc.</p>
<p><strong><em>The Weight of Water<br />
</em></strong></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><img src="http://digitaldiner.org/files/2008/02/022608-0441-digitalpulp54.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><img src="http://digitaldiner.org/files/2008/02/022608-0441-digitalpulp64.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><img src="http://digitaldiner.org/files/2008/02/022608-0441-digitalpulp74.jpg" alt="" /></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">The Unabridged<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">Mark Twain<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">3 Lbs &#8211; 4 Oz</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">The Buying<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">of Congress<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">1 Lb &#8211; 12 Oz</span></p>
</td>
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<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">The Hero with a<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">Thousand Faces<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">1 Lb &#8211; 4 Oz</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">Gavin&#8217;sKindle<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">(w / 2GB &amp; cover)<br />
</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="color: #1f497d">1 Lb</span></p>
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<p>Weight-wise, the Kindle is elegant. It weighs in at exactly one pound, cover included. At first, I thought: &#8220;a pound, damn, that&#8217;s kind of heavy for a book, ain&#8217;t it?&#8221; Turns out, it&#8217;s not. (And, quite frankly, the Kindle is smaller than it looks in any picture.)</p>
<p>Just for the fun, I decided to run its &#8220;comps&#8221; — to compare it to a few other books I had laying around on the nightstand.</p>
<p>As you can see in the pictures above, a typical paper-back &#8220;trade&#8221; book, as represented by <em>The Hero with a Thousand Faces,</em> weighs over a pound and is also slightly larger. A hardback (an embargoed copy of Chuck Lewis&#8217;s <em>The Buying of Congress</em>) is almost twice that. A paper-back, unabridged <em>Mark Twain </em>Reader is over 3 lbs. But, then again, Mark Twain is worth his weight in gold. Paperback pulp fiction, the kind I find in airports and carry from country to country, town to town, weighs in at about a pound.</p>
<p>Size-wise digital books on the Kindle average between 500K and 800K. Calculating liberally, that means that my beast, outfitted as it is with a 2GB SD card I found in a drawer, can hold over 2,000 books. With that kind of space, I am going to be well read, but broke.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the deal: Kindle books typically cost less. By my reckoning, I&#8217;ll save the purchase price within two years, on computer books alone. I am, on the other hand, worried about my local Borders, the Kindle&#8217;s gain, is their loss. I take solace in the fact that clicking the Kindle is no substitute for my weekly trip to the Border&#8217;s redoubt.</p>
<p>Books on the Kindle are cheaper than paper… Here&#8217;s a random comparison of titles and prices.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img src="http://digitaldiner.org/files/2008/02/022608-0441-digitalpulp8.png" alt="" /></p>
<p>Depending on the book, savings run from nothing, up to about 26 percent of the print edition. Savings over hardback costs are greater still, but that comparison seems unjust, since the difference seems irrelevant.</p>
<p>[Borders, by the way, no doubt fearing the loss of my business, has opened a new concept store in town. It incorporates "digital media and internet features" — a concept they are calling the "<a href="http://www.bgimediacenter.com/ConceptMediaRoom.html">media room</a>." I haven't been yet — been too busy building bookcases and playing with my Kindle.]</p>
<p><strong><em>The Future of Ideas<br />
</em></strong></p>
<p>Finally, with the Kindle, I had two ideas I wanted to pursue — two ideas I used to justify the purchase to myself:</p>
<ol style="margin-left: 84pt">
<li>I use it as a &#8220;geek reference library&#8221; — loading it up with PDF copies of manuals, installation guides, administrator references, and all the other <em>desiderata</em> of CIO life (as well as books).</li>
<li>There were possible &#8220;enterprise&#8221; uses — could I, for example, use it for board materials? Would it effectively bridge the gap between things &#8220;printed&#8221; and things &#8220;digital,&#8221; serving that in-between no-man&#8217;s-land land where we still want paper, but despise it.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong><em>The Portable Geek<br />
</em></strong></p>
<p>The first idea turned out to be easy. There are three easy ways to turn other documents, like PDFs, into things that can be read on the Kindle. It&#8217;s not perfect, but it works. It works best with text-heavy documents. Graphics can be a problem. They don&#8217;t scale well.</p>
<p>At issue here is the ability to scale — fonts and graphics — from &#8220;I can read it&#8221; to &#8220;I can read it across the room.&#8221; The text has to be able to &#8220;flow&#8221; — to adjust to the screen as you up the font size.</p>
<p>Amazon&#8217;s native format — a DRM&#8217;ed version of the <a href="http://www.mobipocket.com/en/DownloadSoft/default.asp?Language=EN">MobiPocket</a> eBook format — does this. Word documents and text documents do this. This makes Kindle conversion easier. PDF&#8217;s don&#8217;t flow all that well, especially if they&#8217;re graphic-heavy. To set the record straight: the Kindle supports Amazon&#8217;s DRM format (.AZW), as well as unprotected MobiPocket formats (.PRC and .MOBI) and Text documents. Other formats (like Word and HTML) must be converted</p>
<p>With all of them, Word, PDF, HTML, or Text, the conversion is easy. There are three ways. Two are free, and one costs $0.10 per document. The ten cents is for the wireless delivery.</p>
<ol>
<li>Convert via Email (without wireless delivery) — simply email the file to a special Amazon email address, they&#8217;ll convert it for you, and they&#8217;ll email it back to you. You then drag it on to your Kindle from your PC.</li>
<li>Convert via Email (with wireless delivery) — simply email the file to Amazon to a (slightly) different email address, they&#8217;ll convert for you it and email it directly to your Kindle for a cost of ten cents. It arrives on the Kindle via the wireless connection.</li>
<li>Convert manually — simply download a (free) copy of the MobiPocket Reader software, and click the button to convert the file to the MobiPocket format. It takes a few seconds and stores it on your hard-drive. Once done, you just drag it into the Documents folder on the Kindle.</li>
</ol>
<p>That&#8217;s it. With a little &#8220;conversion&#8221; work, I had a complete technical reference library on my Kindle. Moreover, it was searchable. Everything on the Kindle is searchable. That&#8217;s what the keyboard is for. Just a few (tiny) keystrokes and you get a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_Word_in_Context">KWIC</a> listing of any term you enter. Idea number &#8220;One&#8221; was a success. I had my geek library, portable, searchable; I&#8217;d never suffer insomnia again.</p>
<p><strong><em>Enterprise and Culture<br />
</em></strong></p>
<p>The other idea, enterprise applications, is slightly problematic. The Kindle, like many of today&#8217;s gadgets, does not lend itself well to enterprise. DRM gets in the way, much as it gets in the way of using a Kindle within a library. That&#8217;s a problem that needs solving. In my mind, the solution is easy, the answer, simple: like a physical book; a digital book should only be in one place at a time. How this is done, is easy too, but I&#8217;ll save that idea for some other time.</p>
<p>DRM aside, there are a few uses where the Kindle has an enterprising chance — a chance to function as a wedge between the analog and the digital world.</p>
<p>Organizationally, for example, we produce and ship an amazing amount of paper, all for an internal audience. Non-profits in general do the same thing. I&#8217;m talking about all those board documents; updated policy manuals, bylaws, program plans, pandemic plans, and disaster recovery plans. In organizations today, documents fly through the email-aether. But, in the end, a surprising number end up on paper, in binders, and three-ring notebooks.</p>
<p>The reason is simple. Humans — especially those of longer tooth — don&#8217;t especially like to read lengthy documents on LCD. Even short-toothed people don&#8217;t like reading long documents on an LCD screen. Enter the Kindle.</p>
<p>My thought is to replace all those &#8220;reference-type materials&#8221; — Board materials for example — with a Kindle and digital copy. Even at $400 a pop we&#8217;d save on in-house publishing costs (not to mention the FedEx bills). Moreover, for the most part, these sorts of documents are not &#8220;interactive&#8221; they&#8217;re reference.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, they&#8217;re necessary. And, they&#8217;re heavy, awkward, and difficult to transport. They suffer the same liabilities as the &#8220;book.&#8221; Kindle-izing them would save time, save paper, keep everything centralized and up-to-date, and allow a 10-cent, near instantaneous delivery.</p>
<p>In the end, I am reminded again of Gutenberg. It turns out he only printed about 180 Bibles. He made his money running a press on the side, printing thousands of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indulgences">indulgencies</a> for the Church. It&#8217;s an old story, innovation flows to demand. <em>Plus ça change, plus c&#8217;est la même chose. </em>Perhaps I&#8217;m indulging myself, but I suspect Gutenberg would approve.</p>
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		<title>One Hundred Years of Internet</title>
		<link>http://digitaldiner.org/2007/05/07/one-hundred-years-of-internet/</link>
		<comments>http://digitaldiner.org/2007/05/07/one-hundred-years-of-internet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 May 2007 21:15:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Gavin Clabaugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Identity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NPTech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ownership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Privacy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trust]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.digitaldiner.org/2007/05/07/one-hundred-years-of-internet/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Gilbert Center turns ten this year — that&#8217;s a hundred in Internet years. That&#8217;s something to be proud of — few things last a hundred years, especially in turbulent times. </p> <p>Michael Gilbert and the Gilbert Center graciously host this blog. I think of Michael as my somewhat eccentric publisher — and true [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-family: Arial">The <a href="http://www.gilbert.org/">Gilbert Center</a> turns ten this year — that&#8217;s a hundred in Internet years. That&#8217;s something to be proud of — few things last a hundred years, especially in turbulent times.<br />
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Michael Gilbert and the Gilbert Center graciously host this blog. I think of Michael as my somewhat eccentric publisher — and true to publisher form — he occasionally tries to slip me a suggestion about something that I might write about. In recognition of this anniversary, Michael asked if I&#8217;d be willing to write some sort of &#8220;top ten&#8221; posting — a riff on the ten years.<br />
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Just between you and me, up till now, I&#8217;ve managed to pretty much ignore the suggestions — not purposely. [Really] Things just haven&#8217;t worked out that way.<br />
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial">But this one was different. It struck a chord. I got thinking about the number ten and the year 1997. I got to thinking about how things have changed in those ten years — the world has changed, politics has changed, much has changed. Looking back even further, many of the forces that have shaped today&#8217;s world barely existed twenty years ago. Ten years seems like a long time; twenty seems an eternity.<span id="more-92"></span><br />
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Back when I did a lot of speaking, I used to warn audiences &#8220;everything you know will be worthless in five years.&#8221; Damn if that hasn&#8217;t turned out to be true. In the last ten years, I&#8217;ve had to relearn things at least twice over, maybe more.<br />
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Then, at this year&#8217;s <a href="http://www.nten.org/ntc">NTC</a>, an old friend and colleague mentioned that he had heard Ellen Miller, of the <a href="http://www.sunlightfoundation.com/">Sunlight Foundation</a>, claim me as her original &#8220;enabler.&#8221; This made be chuckle. I suppose I&#8217;m guilty.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">In hindsight, that&#8217;s kind of fun to think about, since Ellen now runs one of the most innovative Web2.0 sites on the &#8216;net. Ellen&#8217;s now busy using these fancy new technologies to move ideas, people, issues, and thoughts. I can&#8217;t, won&#8217;t and shouldn&#8217;t take credit. But it does make me chuckle just a little bit.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">I remember that &#8220;enabling&#8221; like it was yesterday. I bring this all up because it was ten, maybe twelve, years ago. And, I figured that I might just &#8220;<em>re-use&#8221;</em> my notes from that introduction as a core for this post. I admit it, I was looking to get off easy, as it were.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Back then, the deal was this: Ellen provided <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Chinese</span> Thai (I stand corrected!) carry-out and I was to provide a couple of hours of introduction to this strange thing called the World Wide Web. The audience included our mutual friend, Larry Makinson. Then, both Larry and Ellen worked at the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP). They were busy bringing revolutionary transparency to campaign finance. Larry, by the way, is a brilliant fellow and the brains behind much of the campaign finance research done in the last 10 or 20 years. Today, the CRP web site, <a href="http://opensecrets.org">OpenSecrets</a>.org, is pretty fine damn work. Larry&#8217;s now a senior fellow (and a nice fellow too) at the Sunlight Foundation.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">I always figured I got the better deal. It was good <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Chinese</span> Thai food. [This also proves I will work for food.]<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Undaunted by the task — and perhaps I should have been — I had put together some notes that I thought not only described the so-called &#8220;information super highway&#8221; [more like a goat trail back then] but also postulated some of its future impact. In hindsight, I think the themes were spot on.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">True to form, I had also come up with a couple of &#8220;big&#8221; ideas about what the Internet was, and what its impact was going to be. With chopsticks in hand, I laid out a set of concepts and threw in some idle speculation about how it might evolve over time.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">The <span style="font-size: 14pt">BIG</span> idea was this: The internet was going to be a ubiquitous communications network — connecting everything from toasters to power sub-stations. It was going to smash hierarchies, re-write power relationships, and basically change the dynamics of the game.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">But, I figured sagely, in the end, it was still going to be about one-to-one <em>personal</em> interactions, only instead of just one or two people, it was going to be about one-to-one personal interactions between hundreds, thousands, maybe millions of people. The emphasis there is on the personal.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Ever one to use a bad analogy, I likened the &#8220;web&#8221; itself to a Lava Lamp – something that was fascinating in a weird sort of way – but tended to blind us to the real revolution, the underlying communications network. I thought we&#8217;d see the real impact in things that rode on the back of that network; that the web stuff was neat, but the real fun would start when we started shoving other stuff across the network. What the other stuff was, I wasn&#8217;t sure. But I was sure that it was going to be something wonderful. The quote I had in my notes was from Arthur C. Clarke. It was from the &#8217;60&#8242;s. &#8220;We cannot stop the world from being digitized.&#8221; I still think I&#8217;m right there. It&#8217;s not the web, it&#8217;s the other stuff.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">For the web itself, I postulated three phases, each building on the previous. I called these phases <strong>Informational</strong>, <strong>Transactional</strong>, and <strong>Interactional</strong>. In hindsight, those aren&#8217;t bad constructs. &#8220;Informational&#8221; corresponds to the whole &#8220;public face&#8221; brochure-type web sites, &#8220;Transactional&#8221; gets us everything from online book sales to banking to music sites, and &#8220;Interactional&#8221; gets us into this whole community building stuff. To be honest, I missed the whole &#8220;social networking&#8221; stuff. As is so often the case, it&#8217;s the important things you end up missing. That&#8217;s one that kicked me in the ass. Still don&#8217;t quite understand what it means.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">At the time, the seemingly opposite forces of &#8220;market disintermediation&#8221; and &#8220;market aggregation&#8221; seemed poised to change some major equations. I was right — and they&#8217;re still at work — If I&#8217;d been smart, I would have bought eBay and Amazon, each in its own right an example of disintermediation (Amazon) and market aggregation (eBay).<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Mind you, in hindsight, all these concepts are not earth-shattering. Nevertheless, I think they still form the core of some of the changes being wrought in our world, and they still provide a useful framework within which to view the world.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Moreover, simply naming or recognizing these forces has not stopped them. Markets are still being torn asunder. Recently, for example, I was blown away to hear the publisher of the <em>New York Times</em> muse &#8220;I really don&#8217;t know whether we&#8217;ll be printing the <em>Times</em> in five years.&#8221; He then followed by saying: &#8220;And you know what? I don&#8217;t care either.&#8221; As I said, the scale and the pace are phenomenal. It&#8217;s sometimes hard to reconcile the fact that we seem to be going two directions at once, both disintermediating existing markets and structures, and aggregating new markets from what had previously been too scattered to matter — the so-called long-tail.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">That&#8217;s what kicked me in the ass — the scale and pace of change. I was way too pessimistic. In this measly ten years, the world has changed more than I imagined. For example, who now can imagine a time without Google, without the ability to look up song lyrics on a whim, to order underwear online, to flirt and cavort with friends and colleagues scattered across the globe. The Lava Lamp is still there – only it&#8217;s a real-time, interactive, socially networked lava lamp. And that underlying ubiquitous network has spawned VoIP, revolutionized entertainment, and is turning politics on its head.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Finally to the future: Ten years out —<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">As I see it, there are five intertwined and interrelated themes that are shaping the future. These themes keep bonking me in the head with the subtlety of a two-by-four. They provide a framework within which I view and try to make some sense of the world. They are the big countervailing forces and contradictory energies that are at work, shaping what will be.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">In my crystal ball, the next ten years is all about how these five themes will intersect with our lives, our work, our life, and our loves, and how they will intersect with that ubiquitous, universal communications network we call the Internet. In a nutshell, the five themes are:<br />
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial"><strong>Ownership </strong>— Who owns what, and why, and how is it controlled, or not. Is it free, is it open, is it shared? Do I get paid for my ideas, and if so, how?<br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial"><strong>Identity</strong> — How do I preserve that which is me: my name, my time, my eyeballs? How does identity interact with the issues of trust, of ownership, and of privacy?.<br />
</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial"><strong>Trust</strong> — How do I know you&#8217;re you? How can I trust you, trust my bank, trust Google? How do I establish trusted relationships for any sort of transactions?<br />
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<li><span style="font-family: Arial"><strong>Privacy </strong>— How do I preserve my privacy when I want to? How do I keep my identity, and yet participate in a socially networked world?<br />
</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial"><strong>Community </strong>— What is community, what communities – physical and virtual – do I interact with? What binds us together and what doesn&#8217;t?<br />
</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial">These themes blend into one another. There is no clear delineation and I won&#8217;t attempt to make one. Identity, trust and privacy, for example, are clearly three sides of a strangely shaped holographic coin. Our identities are under attack — we actually have a crime called &#8220;Identity Theft.&#8221; I still cringe when I hear people talk of owning &#8220;names&#8221; and &#8220;lists.&#8221; My name is mine, and I want it back.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Identity and trust are all about ownership. Ownership is all about ownership. Open source is all about ownership. Intellectual property is all about ownership. Digital Rights Management is all about ownership. We&#8217;re busy redefining what it means to own an idea, own a concept, or own your own name.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Simultaneously, our lives are increasingly public, increasingly defined in a public arena, and subject to public viewing. What Google knows about me is frightening. What I willing share with the world — through blogs, listservs, email, and Flickr — is also frightening. But for some reason, I do it willingly. For some reason I trust you. (Then again, my wife doesn&#8217;t. She won&#8217;t let me put up pictures of her.)<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">How do I know who you are, how can I trust you? Is my email mine, what about my signature? Who should I trust, and how will I know? Should I trust the Christian singles that want to meet me? How about that fellow in Nigeria with the $200,000,000?<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">The <em>New York Times</em> is one of my few &#8220;trusted sources&#8221; for information. I trust &#8216;em. [Especially since they canned Judith Miller and that other guy.]<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">What&#8217;s a world like without the <em>Times</em>? What news will I trust? Fox News? The Daily Show? [One is fake news. You pick which.] For that matter, where will anyone get their news, since it&#8217;s apparent that every other news source just reads the <em>Times</em> (and sometimes the <em>Washington Post</em>) and rehashes it.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">For most of human history, our communities were shaped by geography. For most of human history, people were born, lived their lives, and died inside a 100-mile radius. Now I have breakfast in Brussels and dinner in Detroit. Not counting sleeping, I spend more time in airports than Ann Arbor. Now our lives are shaped not only by geography, but by a global set of issues. Polities are now shaped by our beliefs more than our locations.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">In this messy melting pot, we are seeking and exploring new forms of community — some are even living &#8220;second lives&#8221; — in a virtual space inhabited by seven foot pink cats. I met one — or so she claimed — just the other day. It was kind of scary. I haven&#8217;t a clue what it means. But I can tell you this, whatever it is, it&#8217;s happening much faster than you think. Trust me..<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Michael and the Gilbert Center have weathered these stormy times, although not without casualty. Undaunted and with cheerful alacrity, Michael continues to cast a critical eye, and lend his critical mind to the nonprofit sector. We are all the richer for it.<br />
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<p><span style="font-family: Arial">Congratulations on your <strong>first</strong> one hundred years. May the next one hundred be just as interesting. Oh… Watch out for the pink cats, I&#8217;m not sure who they are, and I don&#8217;t know if you can trust them.<br />
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